Evaluating Placement Information (Part 2 of 3)

Skillfully evaluating information to place ability at right-fit has three parts — analysis, psychology, and constraints — that are exerted on employers and candidates. Accommodating any one of these in a placement process isn’t easy. Being good at all three is rare. Let’s look at the psychology part below.

The Psychology

The second part of skillfully evaluating a recruiting/placement process is psychological. This part deals with hiring manager and candidate biases which include over confidence, anchoring, confirmation, and recency reliance. These biases arise automatically and are therefore very difficult to overcome by principal decision makers or their influencers. For example, when making a prediction, people tend to give disproportionate weight to whatever they have experienced most recently. In hiring, there is a strong tendency to choose a hiring manager or candidate who has done well recently, those who seem to have a hot hand.

Also, how people make decisions when they are uncertain about gains and losses is at odds with classical economic theory. Because good recruiting/placement process decisions can have bad outcomes, not everyone has a temperament that is well suited to making decisions about activities that involve luck. This emphasizes the importance of being willing to go against the crowd.

However, most career navigators* know that it is more comfortable to be part of the crowd than to be alone. But it’s also hard to distinguish yourself if you’re doing the same thing as everyone else. Skillful investors, for example, heed Benjamin Graham’s advice: “Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it — even though others may hesitate or differ.” Keep in mind that it is insufficient to be a contrarian because sometimes the consensus is right. The goal is to be a contrarian when it allows you to gain an edge, and data helps you ensure a margin of safety without losing attractiveness.

We’ll get into the constraints (Part 3 of 3) in the next post.

* industry experts acting as agent for either a hiring manager or a candidate